Projected Release Dates of the HK45
#4 in the Hong Kong Repression Monitor series
The Hong Kong Repression Monitor series provides overviews of indicators of repression in Hong Kong, based on research and data collected from 2019 to the present. For more information, see this introduction, which will also provide a full list of entries in the series as they are published.
This article is #4 in the Hong Kong Repression Monitor series.
On May 30, 2025, I started a new post, “Updates on the Releases of the HK45.” There you can find information about their releases.
LAST UPDATE: July 3, 2026
If you already know the background, scroll down for the release dates.
UPDATE: On February 23, 2026, 12 of the 45 imprisoned had their appeals rejected. Eleven had plead not guilty in the original trial and been convicted. Their appeals of their convictions were rejected. One, Prince Wong, plead guilty in the original trial. Her appeal of her sentence was rejected. In all, 16 of the 47 originally plead not guilty. Of those 16, 14 were convicted and two acquitted. The Hong Kong government appealed the acquittal of Laurence Lau. The government’s appeal was also rejected. Of the 14 convicted, the 11 who appealed are Gordon Ng, Gwyneth Ho, Owen Chow, Kalvin Ho, Leung Kwok-hung, Raymond Chan, Helena Wong, Clarisse Yeung, Tat Cheng, Winnie Yu, and Lam Cheuk-ting. Two others, Tam Tak-chi and Michael Pang, had originally appealed but withdrew their appeals before the appeals hearing in July 2025. Following the failure of the appeals, the projected release dates of the 12 from prison remain the same, between June 2028 and November 2032.
UPDATE: On February 27, 2025, Lam Cheuk-ting was sentenced to 37 months in prison for “riot” in Yuen Long on July 21, 2019, where in fact he was attempting to protect citizens from indiscriminate attacks by white-shirted thugs in the absence of the police, who failed to respond for an inordinately and suspiciously lengthy period of time. Three months of the 37-month sentence are to be served concurrently with his HK47 sentence of 81 months, meaning that his projected release date is now November 2029.
Background
On January 6, 2021, a total of 55 people were arrested in connection with pro-democracy primary elections that was held on July 11 and 12, 2020. Its purpose was to select candidates to run in Legislative Council elections scheduled for September 6, 2020. 611,000 Hong Kongers voted in the primary elections.
On July 31, the HK Chief Executive postponed the Legco elections, citing the COVID pandemic. But many other election in other countries were successfully held in this period, without any evidence that they exacerbated the pandemic. The real reason was the the regime feared losing.
In November 2019, at the height of the mass protests, District Council elections were held, and pro-democracy candidates won control of 17 of 18 District Councils in a landslide victory. From that moment on, the CCP was intent on shutting any semblance of democracy down.
By the time the postponed Legco elections were held in December 2021, the regime had passed electoral “reform” to exclude all but so-called “patriots” (ie, those loyal to the CCP) from running, and almost all those who ran in the pro-democracy primary were in prison awaiting trial.
47 of the 55 arrested on January 6, 2021 were charged with “conspiracy to subvert state power” under the national security law, which was imposed on Hong Kong by the CCP and enacted on June 30, 2020, twelve days before the pro-democracy primary.
The logic behind the charge was that the pro-democracy movement was attempting to win a majority in Legco (which had been rigged to almost rule out the possibility of an opposition majority), and it planned to use this majority to reject the government’s budget, thus bringing about a constitutional crisis. This constituted “subversion.” Of course, trying to win a majority and take power by constitutional means is the obvious objective in a democratic system.
The overall objective of the regime, through the postponement of the 2020 Legco election, mass arrest of the pro-democracy leaders, and the 2021 electoral “reform” was to exclude any form of opposition from elections.
When the new fake “elections” were eventually held in December 2021, there were no opposition candidates and loyalists won all 70 seats. Voter turnout was a record-low 30%.
Since then, votes on any matters that are considered the regime’s political priorities—such as the second national security law, passed in March 2024— have been unanimous.
The HK47 trial was the biggest and highest-profile national security trial—indeed, political trial of any kind in Hong Kong—ever. The defendants were a combination of the best-known pro-democracy leaders, experienced Legislative Councillors, and many young activists inspired by the 2019-2020 protests to enter politics. Indeed, for many, the election was a way of continuing the protests by other means. It is no exaggeration to say democracy itself was on trial. Eventually, 45 of the 47 defendants were convicted and sentenced to a total of 244 years in prison. And with that, democracy in Hong Kong definitively died…. At least until we win it back in some distant future.
The first of the HK45 will be out in April, just two months from now; the last, in 2032.
They were sentenced on November 19, 2024. The shortest sentences were four years and two months in prison. The longest sentence was ten years.
About two-thirds of the 45 have been detained ever since they first reported for arrest on February 28, 2021. At that time, they were charged and remanded in custody. They remained on remand until sentencing last November. The time on remand is counted toward time served.
The 45 were convicted under the first national security law, imposed by the CCP in 2020. The second national security law, passed by the rubber-stamp patriots-only Legislative Council in March 2024 also affects them. It decrees that in national security cases, the Correctional Services Department (the agency that runs HK prisons and correctional facilities) must certify that the prisoner no longer poses a risk to national security in order for that person to get time off for good conduct. Customarily, prisoners’ sentences are reduced by one-third for good behavior. This will almost certainly not occur for those like the HK45 convicted of national security offenses. The change in regulation was challenged in 2024 by the first national security prisoner affected by it, Ma Chun-man, and he lost. All of the following calculations of release dates accordingly assume that the HK45 will get no time off for good conduct.
The first four, to be released in April, have all been in custody since February 2021 and received the shortest sentences of four years and two months. They are Claudia Mo, Jeremy Tam, Kwok Ka-ki and Gary Fan.
The next four should be released in May. They have also all been in custody since February 2021 and received sentences of four years and three months. They are Jimmy Sham, Kinda Li, Roy Tam, and Henry Wong.
Five more should be released in 2025: Frankie Fung, Nathan Lau and Carol Ng in July and Andy Chui and Tiffany Yuen in August.
By the end of 2025, in all, 13 of the HK45 should be out of prison.
In 2026, eight are scheduled to be released: Eddie Chu, Lester Shum, Fergus Leung, Sam Cheung, Alvin Yeung, Wu Chi-wai, Andrew Wan, and Ng Kin-wai. By the end of 2026, 21 of the 45 should be out.
In 2027, four are currently scheduled to get out: Joshua Wong, Ben Chung, Tam Tak-chi and Lam Cheuk-ting. But there’s a big asterisk next to Lam Cheuk-ting because he’s awaiting sentencing in his absurd trial for “riot” on July 21, 2019 in Yuen Long, where he was actually trying to protect citizens from marauding pro-CCP thugs. This will most likely lengthen his time in prison substantially. He’s scheduled to be sentenced on February 27. So, by the end of 2027, probably 24 of the 45 will have been released.
Eight are scheduled to be released in 2028, only one in 2029, nine in 2030, and the last two, Benny Tai and Owen Chow, in 2032.
While Owen Chow’s sentence—7 years and 9 months—is shorter than Benny Tai’s—10 years—, he’s scheduled to get out later—November 2032 versus May 2032 for Benny—because of two reasons: 1) he has also been sentenced to 5 years, 1 month and 15 days in prison for “riot” for his presence in the Legislative Council building on July 1, 2019 when thousands of protesters stormed it and broke in, and 2) he was released on bail while awaiting trial from June 22, 2021 to January 13, 2022, when his bail was revoked, supposedly for making comments on social media that “endangered national security.”
Besides Owen, 14 other HK45ers are serving or have already served prison sentences for other convictions. Coupled with their HK45 sentences, these impact their projected release dates, in some cases quite substantially. The full list:
Owen Chow, sentenced to 5 years, 1 month and 15 days for “riot” in in the Legislative Council Building on July 1, 2019
Ventus Lau, sentenced to 4 years, 6 months and 20 days for “riot” in in the Legislative Council Building on July 1, 2019 (the same trial as Owen’s)
Tam Tak-chi, sentenced to 3 years, 4 months in prison
Prince Wong Ji-yuet, sentenced to 3 years, 1 month for “riot” outside the police siege of Polytechnic University on November 18, 2019
Joshua Wong, sentenced to 26.5 months in prison cumulatively for 4 protest-related convictions
Leung Kwok-hung, sentenced to 22 months in prison cumulatively for 6 protest-related convictions
Wu Chi-wai, sentenced to 14 months, 2 weeks on two convictions
Andrew Wan, sentenced to 11 months, 3 weeks on two convictions
Au Nok-hin, sentenced to 10 months, 9 weeks on two convictions
Benny Tai, sentenced to 10 months on one conviction
Lester Shum, sentenced to 7 months, 2 weeks on two convictions
Eddie Chu, sentenced to 6 months on one conviction
Gwyneth Ho, sentenced to 6 months on one conviction
Tiffany Yuen, sentenced to 4 months on one conviction
Helena Wong, sentenced to 1 month on one conviction
The above list gives some idea of the extent to which the law has been weaponized by the authorities in Hong Kong to simply criminalize opposition. Many pro-democracy leaders have been tried multiple times on a variety of charges.
The last important factor bearing on projected release dates is that about one-third of the HK45 were released on bail during the entire time from when they were charged on February 8, 2021 to when they were convicted on November 19, 2024. A few were released on bail for part of that time. These have little to no remand time that will count toward time served and thus will have later release dates. They include:
Clarisse Yeung, released on bail March 5, 2021
Hendrick Lui, released on bail March 5, 2021
Mike Lam, released on bail March 5, 2021
Helena Wong, released on bail March 11, 2021
Ricky Or, released on bail March 13, 2021
Michael Pang, released on bail March 13, 2021
Tat Cheng, released on bail March 13, 2021
Sze Tak-loy, released on bail March 15, 2021
Kalvin Ho, released on bail March 15, 2021
Owen Chow, released on bail June 22, 2021; bail revoked January 13, 2022
Winnie Yu, released on bail July 28, 2021; bail revoked March 8, 2022
Raymond Chan, released on bail September 16, 2021
Prince Wong Ji-yuet, released on bail December 22, 2021; taken back into custody July 13, 2023 when she was sentenced to prison for “riot” (see above)
(In addition to the above 13, two others were released on bail, Lee Yue-shun and Laurence Lau, but they were the two who were eventually acquitted.)
Lastly, fourteen of the 45 have applied to appeal. Their applications will be heard during a ten-day hearing scheduled to begin on July 14. Twelve plead not guilty and are appealing their convictions and sentences: Owen Chow, Gordon Ng, Gwyneth Ho, Winnie Yu, Helena Wong, Lam Cheuk-ting, Clarisse Yeung, Michael Pang, Kalvin Ho, Raymond Chan, Tat Cheng, and Leung Kwok-hung . Two plead guilty and are appealing their sentences: Tam Tak-chi and Prince Wong Ji-yuet.
Projected release dates of the HK45
Below is the full list of the HK45, their sentences, and their projected release dates, in chronological order.
2025
毛孟靜 CLAUDIA MO MAN CHING, 4 years, 2 months, April 2025 RELEASED
譚文豪 JEREMY TAM MAN HO, 4 years, 2 months, April 2025 RELEASED
郭家麒 KWOK KA KI, 4 years, 2 months, April 2025 RELEASED
范國威 GARY FAN KWOK WAI, 4 years, 2 months, April 2025 RELEASED
岑子杰 JIMMY SHAM TSZ KIT, 4 years, 3 months, May 2025 RELEASED
李嘉達 KINDA LI KA TAT, 4 years, 3 months, May 2025 RELEASED
譚凱邦 ROY TAM HOI PONG, 4 years, 3 months, May 2025 RELEASED
王百羽 HENRY WONG PAK YU, 4 years, 3 months, May 2025 RELEASED
馮達浚 FRANKIE FUNG TAT CHUN, 4 years, 5 months, July 2025 RELEASED
劉澤鋒 NATHAN LAU CHAK FUNG, 4 years, 5 months, July 2025 RELEASED
吳敏兒 CAROL NG MAN YEE, 4 years, 5 months, July 2025 RELEASED
袁嘉蔚 TIFFANY YUEN KA WAI, 4 years 3 months, August 2025 RELEASED
徐子見 ANDY CHUI CHI KIN, 4 years, 2 months, October 2025 RELEASED
2026
朱凱迪 EDDIE CHU HOI DICK, 4 years, 5 months, January 2026 RELEASED
岑敖暉 LESTER SHUM, 4 years, 6 months, January 2026 RELEASED
梁晃維 FERGUS LEUNG FONG WAI, 4 years, 11 months, January 2026 RELEASED
張可森 SAM CHEUNG HO SUM, 4 years, 11 months, January 2026 RELEASED
楊岳橋 ALVIN YEUNG NGOK KIU, 5 years, 1 month, March 2026 RELEASED
胡志偉 WU CHI WAI, 4 years, 5 months, June 2026 RELEASED
尹兆堅 ANDREW WAN SIU KIN, 4 years, 8 months, June 2026 RELEASED
伍健偉 NG KIN WAI, 5 years, 7 months, September 2026
2027
黃之鋒 JOSHUA WONG CHI FUNG, 4 years, 8 months, January 2027
鍾錦麟 BEN CHUNG KAM LUN, 6 years, 1 month, March 2027
譚得志 TAM TAK CHI, 4 years, 5 months, March 2027
2028
趙家賢 ANDREW CHIU KA YIN, 7 years, February 2028 RELEASED
吳政亨 GORDON NG CHING HANG, 7 years, 3 months, May 2028
區諾軒 AU NOK HIN, 6 years, 9 months, June 2028
何桂藍 GWYNETH HO KWAI LAM, 7 years, June 2028
余慧明 WINNIE YU WAI MING, 6 years, 9 months, July 2028
劉穎匡 VENTUS LAU WING HONG, 4 years, 5 months, August 2028
黃子悅 PRINCE WONG JI YUET, 4 years, 5 months, October 2028
呂智恆 LUI, CHI HANG HENDRICK, 4 years, 3 months, December 2028
2029
梁國雄 LEUNG KWOK HUNG, 6 years, 9 months, March 2029
林卓廷 LAM CHEUK TING, 6 years, 9 months, November 2029
2030
林景楠 MIKE LAM KING LAM, 5 years, 2 months, January 2030
陳志全 RAYMOND CHAN CHI CHUEN, 6 years, 6 months, November 2030
楊雪盈 CLARISSE YEUNG SUET YING, 6 years, 6 months, November 2030
鄭達鴻 CHENG TAT HUNG, 6 years, 6 months, November 2030
彭卓棋 MICHAEL PANG CHEUK KEI, 6 years, 6 months, November 2030
黃碧雲 HELENA WONG PIK WAN, 6 years, 6 months, November 2030
何啟明 KALVIN HO KAI MING, 6 years, 7 months, December 2030
施德來 SZE TAK LOY, 6 years, 7 months, December 2030
柯耀林 RICKY OR YIU KAM, 6 years, 9 months, December 2030
2032
戴耀廷 BENNY TAI YIU TING, 10 years, May 2032
鄒家成 OWEN CHOW KA SHING, 7 years, 9 months, November 2032
